# Losing Streak Calculator

> How many straight losses breach your daily and max drawdown — and the probability of that streak in your next 100 trades. Size risk with real numbers.

**Source:** https://propfirmito.com/tools/losing-streak-calculator/  
**Last modified:** 2026-07-07

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# Losing Streak Survival Calculator

See how many consecutive full-risk losses would breach your daily and maximum drawdown limits, and the approximate probability of suffering such a streak somewhere within your next N trades. Streak probabilities use a standard approximation, labelled as such.

Risk per trade (%) Daily drawdown (%) Max drawdown (%) Win rate (%) Trades in the sample Calculate

## Results

Straight losses to breach the daily limit 4

Chance of that streak within 100 trades 98.2%

Straight losses to breach the max limit 10

Chance of that streak within 100 trades 9.9%

The results below use the form’s default values. Enable JavaScript to recalculate live with your own numbers.

## How it works

**Formula:** Losses to breach daily limit = ceil(daily DD % ÷ risk %). Losses to breach max limit = ceil(max DD % ÷ risk %). Probability of a streak of length L within N trades ≈ 1 − e^(−(N − L + 1) × (1 − p)ᵀ × p), capped at 100%. Example: risking 1% with a 4% daily limit, 4 straight losses end the day — and at a 45% win rate that streak is more likely than not across 100 trades.

## Frequently asked questions

### How likely is a losing streak?

Far more likely than intuition suggests. At a 45% win rate, the chance of at least one 4-loss streak somewhere in 100 trades is above 90% — streaks are a normal feature of random sequences, not a sign the strategy broke.

### How should streak math change my risk per trade?

Size so that a realistic streak survives your daily limit: risking 1% against a 4% daily drawdown means four losses end your day, while 0.5% doubles the cushion to eight. The calculator shows both counts and their likelihood so the trade-off is explicit.

### Is the streak probability exact?

It is a standard approximation for the probability of a run of losses in independent trials, accurate to within a few percentage points in typical ranges and capped at 100%. For decision-making about risk limits, the order of magnitude is what matters.

## Related tools

[Risk of Ruin Calculator](https://propfirmito.com/tools/risk-of-ruin-calculator/) [Drawdown Calculator](https://propfirmito.com/tools/drawdown-calculator/) [Position Size Calculator](https://propfirmito.com/tools/position-size-calculator/) [All tools →](https://propfirmito.com/tools/)

Free educational calculator. Not financial advice. Rules differ by firm — always verify exact values on your firm’s official site.