Losing Streak Survival Calculator
See how many consecutive full-risk losses would breach your daily and maximum drawdown limits, and the approximate probability of suffering such a streak somewhere within your next N trades. Streak probabilities use a standard approximation, labelled as such.
Results
How it works
Frequently asked questions
How likely is a losing streak?
Far more likely than intuition suggests. At a 45% win rate, the chance of at least one 4-loss streak somewhere in 100 trades is above 90% — streaks are a normal feature of random sequences, not a sign the strategy broke.
How should streak math change my risk per trade?
Size so that a realistic streak survives your daily limit: risking 1% against a 4% daily drawdown means four losses end your day, while 0.5% doubles the cushion to eight. The calculator shows both counts and their likelihood so the trade-off is explicit.
Is the streak probability exact?
It is a standard approximation for the probability of a run of losses in independent trials, accurate to within a few percentage points in typical ranges and capped at 100%. For decision-making about risk limits, the order of magnitude is what matters.
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Free educational calculator. Not financial advice. Rules differ by firm — always verify exact values on your firm’s official site.